The math behind the ticket
Lottery Truths estimates the gain or loss per dollar spent on draw-game tickets, using publicly reported results and transparent assumptions. Promotions push purchase; we show the math so you can judge the trade yourself.
Valid math, easy to misread
The estimated gain or loss per ticket is the standard way to evaluate a bet. It accounts for every possible prize, weighted by its probability, minus the cost of playing. The method is the same one used across finance, insurance, and statistics. The data is public. The math is sound.
That single number, though, blends a near-certain small loss with an almost impossibly large win. A billion-dollar jackpot at one-in-300-million odds adds a few dollars to the per-ticket average, making the bet appear far more favorable than the experience of virtually any buyer. More than 99.99% of players walk away with nothing. The "expected" return is a mathematical average shaped by a prize almost nobody will ever win.
What the math says
The estimated gain or loss accounts for every outcome, jackpot included. Across all possible tickets, this average is accurate. It is the correct, standard way to evaluate a wager.
What you will experience
You will buy a finite number of tickets in your lifetime, and the jackpot is vanishingly unlikely to be among them. Your realistic outcome is a complete loss of every dollar you spend.
This site shows both perspectives. The charts present the full mathematical picture, including the jackpot's influence on the average. The odds remind you that your personal, most likely result is losing everything you put in.
How I estimate
I combine advertised annuity jackpot amounts with published win probabilities for each rules era, then subtract the ticket price. When available, a clearly labeled allowance for lower-tier prizes is included. Each game page explains exactly what is covered and where uncertainty remains.
Historical data comes from public record and was cross-referenced across multiple extraction methods. Each game era (covering ticket-price changes, matrix overhauls, and probability shifts) was validated against primary documentation; inconsistent records were excluded so only corroborated data enters my model.
Taxes, net present value adjustments, and winner splitting remain approximate; specifics are documented on each game page. "Estimated" appears above every chart because inputs are reported aggregates and rules can change. If a number is uncertain, I say so.
Analysis by Colt Ramsey.